Ron Paul is only 8% behind Barack Obama. Is anyone else surprised by this number?

Paul is actually more popular with Democrats than either Palin, Huckabee or Romney.   He has the most undecided and has the lowest Obama percentage, according to Politics Daily:

Obama leads Mike Huckabee by 49 percent to 44 percent with 7 percent undecided; Sarah Palin by 51 percent to 43 percent with 5 percent undecided; Ron Paul by 46 percent to 38 percent with 16 percent undecided; and Mitt Romney by 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided.

I think that this is good news for Ron Paul.  Very good news.  He is now a mainstream candidate.  Many do not know him.  They can be persuaded to support him.  I am impressed at all the video press Cong. Paul gets.  And every time he speaks, I am sure somebody somewhere says, “I like this guy.  Let me find out more.” 

Perhaps a Paul/Jindal ticket in 2012?

UPDATE:  Cong. Paul’s Audit the Fed act survived a major gutting in committee and may go to the House floor for a vote.  The co-sponsor with Paul is Cong. Alan Grayson of Florida.  See this video.  This is of course a reason why conservatives find Paul troubling.  Thanks to Abraham, Senior Member of the Ron Paul forums for that last insight.

This is quite impressive:

Pawlenty, under the radar of D.C.’s political community, has locked up some of the key operatives who engineered then-President George W. Bush’s reelection campaign — a significant feat for a little-known Midwestern politician.

These political operatives are impressive:

Nelson initially ran Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign in 2007 and was the national political director on the Bush-Cheney reelection campaign in 2004. Taylor was also a senior official on the Bush campaign and did a stint as White House political director at the start of his second term. Musser ran the Republican Governors Association in 2006 and advised Romney at the outset of his 2008 White House run. Fabrizio and Mueller have also worked on GOP presidential campaigns.

Strong was a Ranger, or top Bush fundraising bundler, in 2004 and for McCain. He’s joined by a group of Minnesotans, including former Target CEO Bob Ulrich, GOP strategist Jeff Larson and TCF Financial Corp. CEO Bill Cooper.

There’s more of interest, including a new PAC:

And in formally opening his political action committee, Freedom First, Thursday, Pawlenty will also announce two co-chairmen, William Strong, a Morgan Stanley vice chairman, and former Rep. Vin Weber (R-Minn.), both of whom are heavyweight GOP figures, along with a list of prominent Minnesota donors.

Finally, an interesting discussion of Pawlenty’s weaknesses.

Yet Pawlenty lacks a few important strengths that some of his possible opponents enjoy. He doesn’t have the ability to finance his own campaign as Romney does, nor does he maintain anything close to the former presidential hopeful’s donor and grass-roots base. He lacks Huckabee’s natural hold on social conservatives. And he’s never going to enjoy a fervent following like the one Palin can point to.

It’s also not entirely clear what Pawlenty’s signature issues will be, since there is no overarching accomplishment in St. Paul that he could clearly run on.

My take on this is that Jonathan Martin is right.  However, being governor of a blue state for eight years, no major scandal that I know of, and working with the other party, will help Pawlenty.  The fact he has been in St. Paul for eight years is an overarching accomplishment.  Minnesotans are among the most savvy voters and political activists in the country.  Pawlenty could conceivably carry Minnesota for the GOP (the 2000 and 2004 elections were reasonably close and I think a few local pride votes could be enough) and may have an impact on neighboring Wisconsin (also has been close, too in 2000 and 2004) and maybe even Iowa.

One more thing:  Pawlenty has been to Virginia to help our next Governor, Bob McDonnell!  (So has Governor Jindal – twice)  You can’t  be a serious contender if you haven’t helped Bob yet!  Look at this list (thanks to GOP 12):

With Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour scheduled to stop in Virginia Beach and Richmond to rally VA Gov candidate, Bob McDonnell, The Richmond Report asks the question: When’s Sarah Palin going to show up?

After all, the list of Stumpers for Bob, so far includes Jindal, Rudy, Steele, Fred Thompson, Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.

I’ll watch for Gov. Palin.

The article by Peter Wehner and Michael Gerson examines the GOP fall and institutional reasons why Democrats have some advantages: 

Over the past five presidential elections, Brownstein writes, Democrats have built a “blue wall” consisting of 18 states and the District of Columbia; these account for fully 90 percent of the electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

The solution is to turn to innovative new leaders (emphasis added):

As it happens, the GOP has successful reformers to whom it can look to and learn from, including popular governors or former governors like Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal, and Jeb Bush.

Wehner and Gerson also discuss the issue of immigration: 

No national party can hope to succeed in the long run without broad support among immigrants and the children of immigrants—particularly, these days, Hispanics and Asian Americans.

Governor Jindal’s immigrant, Asian-American background and record of accomplishment will be attractive to many people, without sacrificing his staunch conservatism.  Wehner and Gerson restate the point:

To succeed, the Republican argument requires communicating that growing ethnic diversity does not undermine but rather strengthens the American ideal.

This Governor Jindal can do.  He also has stated (in that infamous speech that nobody liked but me!) that government tends to stifle innovation and drive.  Wehner and Gerson agree this issue is crucial for Republicans:

It is, in, fact, vital for Republican leaders to press the case for economic growth in general. Americans achieve their dreams not through the redistribution of wealth but through the creation of wealth.

Governor Jindal can speak to another issue important to Wehner and Gerson – social justice:

In this respect, Republicans would be well advised here to borrow a page from David Cameron and Iain Duncan Smith in their revival of the British Conservative party. These leaders have emphasized a range of issues that directly influence the quality of life in community: homelessness, addiction, prison reform, family breakdown, long-term unemployment.

I would suggest that as Governor of Louisiana, Jindal has made major changes that will improve the quality of life:  Ethics reform, encouragement of businesses to come to the state, prison reform, tax reform.  Jindal helped bring back a chicken processing plant to Monroe.  Even less obvious issues like speed traps are part of this new thinking.  Of course Louisiana has to be concerned about weather-related preparedness.  I think we’ll see more innovation. 

Finally, Wehner and Gerson speak of returning the GOP to what Senator Moynihan called a “party of ideas.” 

In the 1980s, one of the Republican party’s main sources of attraction to younger conservatives—we are thinking of our younger selves, among legions of others—was its growing reputation for intellectual vitality. “Of a sudden,” wrote Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a Democrat, in 1981, “the GOP has become a party of ideas.” Restoring that reputation, to be earned now as then through carefully argued and compellingly articulated programs of reform, is a central challenge.

Governor Jindal clearly has the intellectual capital to enage that debate.  He can shape the debate on many issues.  I believe that he will be a great candidate and if elected a great President – whether in 2012 or beyond. 

Finally, there are other leaders with ideas in the Republican Party.  Gov. Mitch Daniels has a stellar record in Indiana and Governor Pawlenty likewise in Minnesota (a blue state that can and does elect conservatives).  Former Governors Huckabee and Romney have must to admire.  Sarah Palin has been vilified in the press but she can be a spark for the party and cna connect with ordinary people – the exact reason so many liberals are afraid of her.  There are others in Congress and state houses with new ideas.   Finally, Congressman Ron Paul, my other political hero, has changed the field of play for ideas and expanded the GOP’s potential reach. 

Having said that, I still believe that Governor Jindal may be the answer to a party looking for new ideas and a new package attractive to Republicans, many independents and conservative Democrats.  Keep an eye on Louisiana.

It has been my theory that if the 2012 election is hopelessly out of reach that Gov. Jindal will not run and wait for 2016 (wonder how easy it is to change a blog name?) but that Gov. Palin will be encouraged to run so the GOP can have the first woman nominee.  But if the 2012 election is contested, Jindal will run and he can win the nomination and the election.  Of course, former Gov. Romney will try to have something to say about it, too.  Maybe Gov. Pawlenty as well. 

I suggest that the liberal/radical attacks on Governor Palin can backfire.  Camille Pagila had a great column in Salon in November on the Sarah Palin controversy.  Pagila says:

Liberal Democrats are going to wake up from their sadomasochistic, anti-Palin orgy with a very big hangover. The evil genie released during this sorry episode will not so easily go back into its bottle.

Isn’t she right?  There’s more:

I like Sarah Palin, and I’ve heartily enjoyed her arrival on the national stage. As a career classroom teacher, I can see how smart she is — and quite frankly, I think the people who don’t see it are the stupid ones, wrapped in the fuzzy mummy-gauze of their own worn-out partisan dogma. So she doesn’t speak the King’s English — big whoop! There is a powerful clarity of consciousness in her eyes. She uses language with the jumps, breaks and rippling momentum of a be-bop saxophonist. I stand on what I said (as a staunch pro-choice advocate) in my last two columns — that Palin as a pro-life wife, mother and ambitious professional represents the next big shift in feminism. Pro-life women will save feminism by expanding it, particularly into the more traditional Third World.

That is what the Palin haters fear.  A populist conservative mother who will connect with the American People.  While I prefer Gov. Jindal, if they keep it up, they’ll be watching the inauguration of President Palin in 2013. 

Sandy