Paul captured 31% of the activists (and I wasn’t even there to help!) at CPAC, beating Romney by 9 points and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin by 24 points (she got 7%).  This is an amazing turnout.  The conservative activists had mixed feelings about the results.

Pro:

With participants naming “reducing the size of federal government” as their top issue, the 74-year old libertarian hero captured 31 percent of the 2,400 votes cast in the annual contest, usually seen as a barometer of how the GOP’s conservative wing regards their potential presidential candidates.

Con:

The announcement of Paul’s win, a surprise victory unlikely to have a major impact on the 2012 presidential contest, drew a volley of loud boos from the CPAC audience.

That discontent could be seen in the poll results: A majority of participants said they wished the Republican Party had a better field of candidates to choose from.

But I disagree with CNN’s analysis:  I think this WILL have an impact on the 2012 race.  The better test is the CPAC poll for next year.  I would think that Lord willing Paul will win again going away.  Paul does not change his views and has been a paragon of integrity in Congress.  He is also a social conservative.  Young activists realize we are running out of time to change the course of our country.

But the CPAC straw poll is out and there are two surprises:  In a solid second place, just six points behind former Governor Mitt Romney is Bobby Jindal.  That’s right.  Governor Jindal had 14 percent.  This is more surprising when you consider that Romney is unofficially campaigning for President and Jindal has disavowed any interest in the White House. 

The other surprise is that Cong. Ron Paul came in fourth, right behind former Gov. Sarah Palin.  He had 13% of the straw poll votes.  This shows that Paul has made inroads into the conservative activists who frequent CPAC and related events. 

Next year’s straw poll will be critical:  I have indicated my interest in being a credentialed blogger for CPAC and if selected, I’ll live blog from there.  Can I cast half a vote for Jindal and half for Paul?  In the meantime, read my friend Tom White’s blog!

Here’s another comment that excites me and will send tajitj to new heights of rhapsody!  This is a quote from Bill Kauffman in the American Conservative cited in GOP 12:

At breakfast the morn of the rally, I sat across the table from a friendly dude wearing a peace-sign T-shirt and looking like an affable old surfer. He introduced himself as Gary Johnson, the former two-term governor of New Mexico. Over the next day, I spent a fair amount of time chatting with Governor Johnson: mountain-climber, triathlete, vetoer of 750 bills.

He told me that he may take a shot at the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 as an antiwar, anti-Fed, pro-personal liberties, slash-government-spending candidate—in other words, a Ron Paul libertarian.

This is small potatoes compared to this next story.  Dick Morris suggests in Newsmax that former Massachusetts Mitt Romney is out of serious 2012 running due to his healthcare “solution” in his home state.  I would seriously consider anything Morris says about politics.  You might not agree or feel confortable with Morris but he is a brilliant politico on the level of Machiavelli.  I respect anything he says. 

Morris also says that former Alaska Governor Palin has a way to go to be the GOP front runner:

“I think that Sarah Palin’s book sales are doing well, and I think she’s an incredible woman, but a lot of people were concerned when she resigned from the governorship of Alaska. Right now there is no front-runner…”

I think this has been a good two weeks for Governor Jindal.  He is quietly not making mistakes but being a good, competent governor of an important state.  I know he wants to run for re-election but i also know he listens to the Lord and if He says, it’s time, thne it’s time.

The campaign of the seeming front-runner in 2012, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has now sprung a serious leak.  Believe me, this gives me no joy.  I believe that Gov. Huckabee tends toward mercy and he may have allowed several to be released when they did not deserve. 

With no national buzz for former Massachusetts Mitt Romney and many party leaders frightened about the nomination of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the party leaders may have to decide who to support.  That may well be Jindal. 

Besides, if the Saints have an undefeated season and win the Super Bowl, that ought to be reason enough to support the visionary governor!

This is a bit of a surprise.  I thought Romney and Palin would be strong but not behind Huckabee.  Jindal did not place in this poll but many believe he will not run in 2012 and the Louisiana governor has not been in the public eye.

Palin’s book is about to come out and that will increase the visibility of the former VP candidate in 2008.  Speaking of visibility, it appears that Palin is not campaigning in either NJ or VA.  Governor Jindal has a book coming out soon, too – sometime next year.

1.  Actively running in all but name;

2.  Probably running but may decide not to;

3.  Possibly running but probbaly will not do so;

4.  Definitely not running.

Let’s start with who is running:

Gov. Pawlenty of Minnesota is clearly running for President.  He spoke in Virginia for my soon to be (Lord willing) favorite governor of Virginia:  Bob McDonnell.  He’s been speaking around the country in various fora on issues.  Pawlenty brings several positives to the race:  He’s is a staunch social conservative and good governor in a blue state.  He is an attorney and served in the Minnesota legislature, being the majority leader in the state house before ascending to the governorship (Thank the McLaughlin Group for that brief bio).  Pawlenty speaks of working people and wnats to woo the so called “Sam’s club” voters into the party. 

Former Gov. Romney of Massachusetts is also clearly running.  His people think he will run.  He too is speaking and is raising funds through his PAC:  Free and Strong America.  While I think he might be better served renouncing 2012 and seeking the vacant Senate seat he once ran for (in 1994), there appears to be no chance of that.  Romney will have the same questions he had before.  He does have personal integrity and his Mormonism can be an asset in that most people tend to admire the individual Mormons they know due to their upright family-oriented positions.  But, he also has the star power that a leading presidential candidate has. 

Former Gov. Palin of Alaska is clearly running, too.  Barring a scandal, she will run and do very well.  She has her own PAC that will help candidates throughout the nation.  Those IOUs will be paid back in endorsements.  Palin has a national following that Pawlenty and Romney can only dream of.  She also has a opportunity to connect with people and prove she is smart and savvy.  Yes, I am aware of her negatives, but the negative press may help her if ordinary people decide she is one of them.  She comes from a middle class background and has a compelling story both personally and politically.  Let’s admit it:  Palin’s attractive charisma also is an asset to her campaign.

Cong. Paul of Texas does not want to run for President but when you are a cult icon in politics, you’ll have to run if your health allows it.  He will be about 77 when he runs but Konrad Adenauer was Chancellor of West Germany well into his eighties.  It can be done.  He will have strong grass roots support and his ideas have been adopted at least in part by mainstream conservatives.  Paul has no charisma in the classic sense but his ideas and incorruptibility appeal to many more voters than in 2008.  he will have the GOP netroots down pat and can raise huge sums of cash.  It was reported for example that Romney’s PAC raised nearly two million dollars in the first half of 2009 while SarahPAC raised nearly $750,000.   Those are great numbers but they dwarf what Paul can come up with.  Ron Paul raised $18,000,000 in the fourth quarter of 2007.  That makes him a “contendar” where I come from.