Conflicted Libertarian

I would divide the 2012 GOP campaign into several possibilities:

1.  Actively running in all but name;

2.  Probably running but may decide not to;

3.  Possibly running but probbaly will not do so;

4.  Definitely not running.

Let’s start with who is running:

Gov. Pawlenty of Minnesota is clearly running for President.  He spoke in Virginia for my soon to be (Lord willing) favorite governor of Virginia:  Bob McDonnell.  He’s been speaking around the country in various fora on issues.  Pawlenty brings several positives to the race:  He’s is a staunch social conservative and good governor in a blue state.  He is an attorney and served in the Minnesota legislature, being the majority leader in the state house before ascending to the governorship (Thank the McLaughlin Group for that brief bio).  Pawlenty speaks of working people and wnats to woo the so called “Sam’s club” voters into the party. 

Former Gov. Romney of Massachusetts is also clearly running.  His people think he will run.  He too is speaking and is raising funds through his PAC:  Free and Strong America.  While I think he might be better served renouncing 2012 and seeking the vacant Senate seat he once ran for (in 1994), there appears to be no chance of that.  Romney will have the same questions he had before.  He does have personal integrity and his Mormonism can be an asset in that most people tend to admire the individual Mormons they know due to their upright family-oriented positions.  But, he also has the star power that a leading presidential candidate has. 

Former Gov. Palin of Alaska is clearly running, too.  Barring a scandal, she will run and do very well.  She has her own PAC that will help candidates throughout the nation.  Those IOUs will be paid back in endorsements.  Palin has a national following that Pawlenty and Romney can only dream of.  She also has a opportunity to connect with people and prove she is smart and savvy.  Yes, I am aware of her negatives, but the negative press may help her if ordinary people decide she is one of them.  She comes from a middle class background and has a compelling story both personally and politically.  Let’s admit it:  Palin’s attractive charisma also is an asset to her campaign.

Cong. Paul of Texas does not want to run for President but when you are a cult icon in politics, you’ll have to run if your health allows it.  He will be about 77 when he runs but Konrad Adenauer was Chancellor of West Germany well into his eighties.  It can be done.  He will have strong grass roots support and his ideas have been adopted at least in part by mainstream conservatives.  Paul has no charisma in the classic sense but his ideas and incorruptibility appeal to many more voters than in 2008.  he will have the GOP netroots down pat and can raise huge sums of cash.  It was reported for example that Romney’s PAC raised nearly two million dollars in the first half of 2009 while SarahPAC raised nearly $750,000.   Those are great numbers but they dwarf what Paul can come up with.  Ron Paul raised $18,000,000 in the fourth quarter of 2007.  That makes him a “contendar” where I come from.

Tags: 2012, Mitt-Romney, Pawlenty, Ron Paul, Sarah-Palin